Two Wins From History
Arsenal are closer to the Premier League title than they have been in over two decades.
Two points clear of Manchester City. Two games remaining. Win both and the trophy is theirs — no calculations required, no goal difference anxiety, no watching the clock at the Etihad.
The last time Arsenal were crowned champions of England was 2004 under Arsène Wenger. That wait — 22 years and counting — could finally end this Sunday.
But City, as they have done all season, refuse to make it easy.
Where Things Stand Right Now
| Club | Played | Points | GD | Remaining Fixtures |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 36 | 79 | +42 | Burnley (H), Crystal Palace (A) |
| Manchester City | 36 | 77 | +40 | Bournemouth (A), Aston Villa (H) |
Arsenal sit two points clear. Their goal difference advantage over City is two goals. Win both remaining matches, and they are champions — full stop.
Manchester City, however, has not given up. Their unbeaten league run stretches back to mid-January, and despite a season of inconsistency, they are still standing right behind Arsenal with two games in hand.
Arsenal’s Route to the Title
Game 1: Burnley at Home — Monday, May 18
Arsenal’s penultimate match could not look more favourable on paper.
Burnley were relegated weeks ago and have nothing left to play for. The Emirates is set to be a cauldron of nervous energy and expectation, with supporters knowing that a win moves Arsenal to within one result of ending a 22-year wait for the top-flight title.
A win here keeps the destiny firmly in Arsenal’s hands. Anything less, and City are given a lifeline that Guardiola will not hesitate to use.
Arteta’s message to his players ahead of the run-in has been clear: “Stay present. Live in the moment. Prepare and show the same level of energy, hunger, and desire we have shown all season, or more. We are closer and closer, and everything we do is going to matter.”
Game 2: Crystal Palace Away — Final Day, May 24
If Arsenal win on Monday, they travel to Selhurst Park on the final day needing one more result to lift the trophy.
Crystal Palace is safe from relegation and will have an eye on their own Europa Conference League final against Rayo Vallecano on May 27. On paper, Arsenal’s run-in looks easier than City’s — the Gunners face already-relegated Burnley at home, then an away trip to a Palace side that is safe from the drop and will have one eye on their upcoming European final.
Two wins. Fourteen Premier League titles. First since 2004.
Can Man City Still Win It?
Mathematically, yes. Realistically, it is a narrow path — but not an impossible one.
City’s title hopes rest on two things happening simultaneously: Arsenal dropping points in at least one of their final two games, and City winning both of theirs.
Game 1: Bournemouth Away — Tuesday, May 19
This is the trickier of City’s two remaining fixtures. City appear to have a tougher run-in — they travel to Bournemouth, who are chasing their first-ever European qualification.
Bournemouth have been one of the Premier League’s most improved sides this season and will be playing for Europa League football in front of their own supporters. It is a hostile environment, and City will need to be at their best.
Game 2: Aston Villa at Home — Final Day, May 24
City end their season at the Etihad against Aston Villa — a side that has already secured Champions League qualification and will have played a Europa League final four days earlier against Freiburg on Wednesday, May 20.
Villa could be tired and in relaxed mode after their European final, which may work in City’s favour. But a Pep Guardiola side at home, fighting for the title, will take some stopping regardless of the opposition’s mindset.
The Goal Difference Situation
Even if both clubs win all their remaining games, Arsenal are champions — because they are already two points ahead.
But the goal difference picture adds an extra layer of tension for Arsenal.
City’s winning margin against Crystal Palace gives them the narrowest possible advantage in terms of goal difference over Arsenal. If City move ahead on goal difference and Arsenal are unable to edge ahead against Palace, the pressure would be immense.
In the extremely unlikely event that both clubs finish level on points and goal difference, goals scored would be the next tiebreaker. If even that is level, City would claim the title on head-to-head points — because they have won four points against Arsenal this season through a win and a draw.
That scenario is almost implausible. But in a season this tight, almost nothing can be ruled out entirely.
What the Managers Are Saying
Mikel Arteta — Focused and Grounded
Arteta has been a model of calm throughout this title challenge. His messaging has remained consistent — no complacency, no looking ahead, no celebrations before they are earned.
His public stance is measured, but the urgency beneath it is clear. Arsenal know what is at stake. They know what Monday means. And they know that the City will not hand them anything.
Pep Guardiola — Enjoying Every Moment
Guardiola, remarkably, appears to be relishing the pressure rather than buckling under it.
“I love it. I love to be here again,” Guardiola said. “Last season, we were fighting to qualify for the Champions League — that was so difficult. I love the Carabao Cup in our pocket. We play an FA Cup final at Wembley, it is the most beautiful game of the season.
With the League Cup already secured and the FA Cup final won against Chelsea, Guardiola has made clear that City have had a successful season regardless of the Premier League outcome. That freedom from pressure — combined with the title still being mathematically alive — makes City a dangerous opponent even in these final weeks.
Beyond the League: Arsenal’s Double Dream
If the title storyline were not compelling enough on its own, Arsenal is also preparing for the UEFA Champions League final against Paris Saint-Germain in Budapest on May 30.
Win the Premier League and then conquer Europe six days later, and this would go down as the greatest season in Arsenal’s modern history — perhaps in the history of the club altogether.
Two more wins and Arteta will deliver Arsenal’s first league title since 2004 and set up the prospect of the club’s best season ever, if they then win the Champions League final against PSG in Budapest.
The scale of what Arsenal are chasing is genuinely historic. But first — Burnley on Monday. One step at a time.
The Simple Summary: What Each Club Needs
Arsenal win the title if they:
- Win both remaining games ✅ (title confirmed, no need to watch City)
- Win one and draw one — possible, but only if City also drops points
- Draw both — title gone regardless of City’s results
Man City win the title if they:
- Win both remaining games AND Arsenal drop points in at least one fixture
Final Thoughts: History Is Knocking
The Arsenal Premier League title race in 2026 has everything.
A 22-year wait. A manager who has rebuilt a club and turned them into genuine champions. A rival in Manchester City who will push them every single step of the way. And the possibility of a European final that could turn a great season into an all-time one.
Arsenal are close. Closer than they have been in a generation.
Monday cannot come soon enough.
