Full Breakdown With One Game to Go
The Most Congested European Race in Years
With one matchweek remaining in the 2025-26 Premier League season, the race for European football has produced one of the most complex and compelling final-day scenarios in recent memory.
Four clubs have already confirmed their places in next season’s UEFA Champions League. A fifth is one result away from joining them. And beyond that, the battle for Europa League and Conference League spots involves a web of permutations that stretches from sixth place all the way down to eighth, with cup competitions adding further layers of possibility.
The Premier League race for Europe in 2025-26 is not just about who finishes where in the table. Cup final results, European trophy winners, and UEFA coefficient rules all play a role. Here is every scenario you need to understand before the final day of the season.
How Many European Spots Does the Premier League Get?
Before breaking down which clubs are competing for what, it is worth explaining the structure, because this season it is more generous than usual.
The Premier League is set to earn a fifth Champions League spot this season through UEFA’s coefficient table, which measures how clubs from each country perform collectively across European competitions. That means five Premier League clubs will play Champions League football in 2026-27 — one more than the standard four.
Two Europa League places are awarded to English clubs: one goes to the FA Cup winners, and the other goes to the Premier League’s sixth-placed team. The seventh-placed team qualifies for the Conference League.
Manchester City won the EFL Cup in March, but they will not need the Conference League spot that comes with that trophy, as they are already guaranteed to finish in the top five. That Conference League place therefore passes to the highest-ranked team in the Premier League who have not already qualified for European competition.
In short, up to seven Premier League clubs will qualify for Europe through league position and cup results alone. Under certain scenarios involving Aston Villa and Crystal Palace in their respective European finals, that number could climb as high as ten.
The Champions League Race
Who Is Already Confirmed
Arsenal and Manchester City have long been certain of finishing in the top five and are therefore guaranteed Champions League football next season. Manchester United confirmed their place with a win over Liverpool in early May.
Following tonight’s 4-2 victory over Liverpool at Villa Park, Aston Villa have also officially secured a top-five finish, confirming their place in Europe’s elite club competition for 2026-27.
That leaves Liverpool as the fifth club chasing confirmation.
Liverpool: One Win From Safety
Liverpool requires just three points from their final match — against Brentford on the last day — or for Bournemouth to drop points in one of their two remaining games to confirm their spot in the Champions League.
After tonight’s 4-2 defeat at Villa Park, Arne Slot’s side drops to fifth. Their defensive structure — a concern throughout the second half of the season — will need to be significantly tighter against Brentford if they are to win comfortably and avoid a final-day scare.
| Club | Points | Position | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 82 | 1st | ✅ Champions League Confirmed |
| Manchester City | 80 | 2nd | ✅ Champions League Confirmed |
| Manchester United | ~68 | 3rd | ✅ Champions League Confirmed |
| Aston Villa | 62 | 4th | ✅ Champions League Confirmed |
| Liverpool | ~62 | 5th | 🟡 Need Result vs Brentford |
The Europa League Race
Bournemouth holds the Key Position
Brentford are four points behind Bournemouth in the race for sixth after suffering a 3-0 loss to Manchester City. Chelsea and Everton are six points behind Bournemouth with six points to play for, so their chances of finishing sixth are fading significantly.
As it stands, Bournemouth are in sixth place and on course for their first-ever Europa League campaign — a remarkable achievement for a club that spent large portions of their history in the lower divisions of English football.
Chelsea’s FA Cup Route
Even if Chelsea cannot catch Bournemouth in the table, they have a second path into Europe through the FA Cup.
One Europa League place is given to the FA Cup winners — and Chelsea are preparing to face Manchester City in the final at Wembley this Saturday, May 16. A Chelsea victory would secure them Europa League football regardless of where they finish in the Premier League table, and would also free up the sixth-place league Europa League spot for the next eligible team.
If Manchester City win the FA Cup and also qualify for Europe via their league position — which they already have — their Europa League spot passes to the next eligible club in the table.
Europa League Permutations at a Glance
| Scenario | Europa League Teams |
|---|---|
| Chelsea wins the FA Cup | Chelsea + 6th place (Bournemouth) |
| Man City win the FA Cup | 6th place (Bournemouth) + 7th place |
| Villa win the Europa League & finish 5th | 6th becomes an additional CL place |
The Conference League Race
Brighton, Brentford, and the Battle for Seventh
There are only five points between the six clubs ranked seventh to twelfth, from Brighton down to Sunderland — meaning the Conference League qualification picture remains genuinely open heading into the final day.
Brighton currently sit seventh and are the frontrunners for a Conference League place, but Brentford, Fulham, Nottingham Forest, and even Sunderland cannot be fully ruled out depending on results across the final matchweek.
The twist? Whoever wins the Conference League this season earns promotion to the Europa League, and whoever wins the Europa League earns promotion to the Champions League. Three English teams — Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, and Aston Villa — are still active in those competitions.
That matters enormously for the domestic picture. If Crystal Palace win the Conference League but finish outside the top seven in the Premier League, an additional European spot cascades down the table — potentially bringing an eighth club into European football.
The Aston Villa Factor: Europe’s Wild Card
Of all the variables shaping this season’s Premier League race for Europe, Aston Villa’s involvement in the Europa League final is the most significant and most complex.
Should Aston Villa win the Europa League and finish in fifth place in the Premier League, then sixth place would also qualify for the Champions League — creating an anomaly that benefits whichever club finishes in that position.
Villa face SC Freiburg in the Europa League final on Wednesday. Having already confirmed Champions League football through their league position tonight, they enter that final with freedom — but the implications of winning it could reshape the entire European picture beneath them.
If Villa win the Europa League and finish in fifth, sixth place becomes a Champions League place rather than a Europa League spot, which means Brentford and Brighton have a significant interest in ensuring Villa stay fifth rather than dropping to sixth on the final day.
The mathematics of it are intricate. But for fans of clubs sitting sixth to eighth, the result of a Wednesday night European final in a different country could directly determine what continental competition — if any — their club plays in next season.
Remaining Fixtures: Every Club Still Fighting for Europe
Matchweek 37
| Fixture | Relevance |
|---|---|
| Man United vs Nottingham Forest (H) | United already confirmed; Forest needs points for 7th |
| Brighton vs Man City | Brighton is fighting for 7th; City already confirmed |
| Bournemouth vs? | Bournemouth is in 6th place |
| Brentford vs? | Brentford chasing 6th/7th |
Final Day — Matchweek 38
| Fixture | Relevance |
|---|---|
| Liverpool vs Brentford | Liverpool needs to win to confirm CL; Brentford is chasing Europe |
| Arsenal vs Burnley | Arsenal title race finale |
| Man City vs Aston Villa | City title race; Villa already in CL |
| Brighton vs Man United | Brighton is fighting for the Conference League |
| Bournemouth vs? | Bournemouth is protecting its Europa League spot |
FA Cup Final — May 16
| Fixture | Venue |
|---|---|
| Chelsea vs Manchester City | Wembley Stadium |
The FA Cup final on Saturday adds an immediate layer of drama before the season’s final matchweek even begins. Its result will clarify one of the Europa League spots and potentially trigger a chain of changes across the sixth and seventh-place qualification picture.
How Many English Clubs Could Play in Europe Next Season?
At minimum, the Premier League will see eight teams qualify for Europe next season — the base number of seven, with the additional Champions League place they have already earned added to the mix.
The maximum number of clubs that could potentially qualify is ten — but only if Aston Villa win the Europa League and fail to finish in the top five, and if Crystal Palace win the Conference League title.
The most likely outcome, based on current standings, is eight clubs in European football next season — five in the Champions League, two in the Europa League, and one in the Conference League.
What Each Club Needs — A Simple Summary
Champions League:
- Arsenal, Man City, Man United, Aston Villa ✅ — Already confirmed
- Liverpool 🟡 — Win vs Brentford OR Bournemouth to drop points
Europa League:
- Bournemouth 🟡 — Protect sixth place in final fixtures
- Chelsea 🟡 — Win FA Cup final vs Man City (Saturday)
Conference League:
- Brighton 🟡 — Hold seventh place on the final day
- Brentford 🟠 — Need results to go their way + win remaining game
- Nottingham Forest 🟠 — Dependent on those above dropping points
Final Thoughts: A Finale Worth Every Minute
The Premier League race for Europe in 2025-26 has created a final day that extends far beyond the title race or the relegation battle. It is a multi-layered, multi-competition, multi-club puzzle — one where the result of a European final in Budapest or a cup final at Wembley can shift domestic qualification spots in ways that feel almost too complex to believe.
It is the Premier League at its most gloriously chaotic. Every result matters. Every goal counts. And for clubs from Liverpool in fifth to Sunderland in twelfth, the final matchweek of the 2025-26 season genuinely cannot come soon enough.
