Midweek Match Insights: Rotation Risks and Emerging Differentials
As we approach Gameweek 5 of the 2024/25 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season, the midweek Carabao Cup and European fixtures offered several valuable insights that can impact our FPL teams.
At Aston Villa, Ollie Watkins faces increased rotation risk, as Unai Emery has been regularly subbing him around the 60th minute for Duran. Despite Watkins’ two-goal haul in Gameweek 4, his reduced minutes may lower his appeal as a consistent FPL pick. Meanwhile, Morgan Rogers shows promise but is yet to deliver attacking returns.
For Liverpool, rotation concerns between Luis Diaz and Cody Gakpo persist. Arne Slot revealed that he originally planned to start Gakpo against Nottingham Forest, but Diaz’s better condition after the international break led to his inclusion. This raises questions about Diaz’s reliability, despite his early-season form.
Key points:
- Ollie Watkins is now a rotation risk, with Duran threatening his minutes.
- Morgan Rogers has yet to deliver attacking returns but continues to start for Villa.
- Luis Diaz may be rotated, reducing his appeal as a long-term FPL asset.
At Brentford, Yoane Wissa impressed with three attacking returns, positioning himself as a potential differential. On the other hand, Manor Solomon of Fulham failed to deliver, while Marcus Rashford extended his scoring form for Manchester United, albeit against weaker opposition.
Wildcard Dilemma: Gameweek 5 vs. Gameweeks 6 and 7
As we near the season’s first major Wildcard window, managers must decide when to activate it: Gameweek 5, Gameweek 6, or Gameweek 7?
Gameweek 6 offers a compelling case due to favorable fixture swings for both Arsenal and Brentford. Arsenal’s run includes home matches against Leicester and Southampton, followed by a trip to Bournemouth. Similarly, Brentford face promising fixtures, including West Ham and Wolves at home, and Ipswich away.
Conversely, Liverpool’s fixtures toughen slightly after Gameweek 5, with away games at Wolves and Crystal Palace, then home ties against Chelsea and Arsenal. This may encourage managers to reduce Liverpool coverage and increase exposure to Arsenal assets.
Key reasons for considering Gameweek 6:
- Favorable fixtures for Arsenal and Brentford.
- Tougher fixtures for Liverpool post-Gameweek 5.
- Potential to increase Arsenal assets and reduce Liverpool players.
Gameweek 7 presents an enticing opportunity for those considering Manchester City assets. City face Fulham at home, followed by Wolves away and Southampton at home, making it an ideal time to bring in the likes of Erling Haaland and potentially other City players.
While Gameweek 5 presents a more awkward Wildcard window, with City and Arsenal facing each other, it may still be a valid option if your team is riddled with rotation risks or underperforming players.
Potential Wildcard Strategies
One strategy is to plan a Gameweek 6 Wildcard but modify it for Gameweek 5 if needed. Here’s an example:
Gameweek 6 Wildcard Draft:
- Goalkeeper: Raya
- Defenders: Gabriel, Conor, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Vandenberg
- Midfielders: Saka, Bernardo, Sharda, Bowen
- Forwards: Calvert-Lewin, Haaland
This draft targets Arsenal and Brentford’s favorable fixtures while keeping Trent Alexander-Arnold and Haaland for long-term value. The midfield and forwards offer a blend of premium options and reliable performers.
To adapt this draft for Gameweek 5:
- Salah replaces Saka to take advantage of Liverpool’s fixture against Bournemouth.
- Haaland can be swapped out for a mid-priced forward to manage the tricky City vs. Arsenal matchup in Gameweek 5.
This adjustment allows for immediate captaincy flexibility while positioning your squad for future fixture swings.
Addressing Key Questions
Is Leif Davis the best £4.5m defender?
Leif Davis is an intriguing option at £4.5m, especially given his attacking potential for Ipswich. However, his short-term clean sheet prospects are limited. Other viable options include Neco Williams (Nottingham Forest) and Crystal Palace or Fulham defenders, who might offer more reliable returns depending on your team’s structure.
Is Trent Alexander-Arnold a viable captaincy option?
If you don’t have Salah, Trent Alexander-Arnold could be considered as a captain for Gameweek 5 against Bournemouth. His attacking threat is well-documented, but relying on defenders as captains comes with the risk of clean sheet losses, which can hurt your overall points. It’s a high-risk, high-reward choice that depends on your team’s setup.
Is Dwight McNeil being overlooked?
While Dwight McNeil has posted decent returns in recent weeks, his underlying stats remain inconsistent. At £5.4m, he’s a useful enabler for premium assets, especially with Everton’s favorable fixtures on the horizon. He’s not a must-have but could be a budget-friendly option if you’re reshuffling your team or on a Wildcard.
Transferring Haaland out for Salah?
Switching Erling Haaland for Mohamed Salah in Gameweek 5 is a bold move, but it requires careful consideration. Haaland’s form has been exceptional, and while Salah offers strong appeal against Bournemouth, getting Haaland back into your squad later may prove challenging if his price rises. If your team structure and budget allow, it could be a viable short-term strategy, but be mindful of its long-term implications on your Wildcard draft.
Conclusion
As Gameweek 5 approaches, managers must weigh several key factors in their Wildcard strategies. While Gameweek 6 may provide a more favorable window for squad restructuring, Gameweek 5 can still offer value if your team needs immediate changes.
By considering fixture swings for Arsenal, Brentford, and Liverpool, and monitoring rotation risks for players like Diaz and Watkins, you can make informed decisions to optimize your FPL team. Ultimately, your Wildcard decision should align with your squad’s current state and your long-term plans.
Stay tuned to the latest updates, and good luck with your Gameweek 5 preparations!
